Although the Nintendo Switch 2 is expected to sell millions in the US alone, it’s suggested it’s first year won’t be as strong as the original’s.
Given how rabid anticipation is for the Nintendo Switch 2, it’s unlikely the console will have any trouble selling at launch. In fact, Nintendo’s apparently bolstering stock to prevent it from selling out, as well as mitigate the inevitable scalping issues.
That said, Nintendo would naturally want to see the Switch 2 outperform its older sibling. Obviously, it won’t match the original console’s lifetime sales overnight, but one analyst predicts it won’t beat it at launch either.
While there remains no word of an official reveal or release date from Nintendo, Matt Piscatella, executive director and industry analyst at Circana, has taken a crack at estimating the Switch 2’s sales performance, at least in the US.
For what it’s worth, recent speculation and rumours point to Nintendo unveiling the console before the end of January, with a launch in the spring.
Just this week, accessories manufacturer Genki displayed a replica of the Switch 2 at CES 2025, adding that its accessories for the console will launch in April, suggesting that’s also Nintendo’s target release window.
Piscatella adds that these 4.3 million sales would account for approximately a third of all video game console hardware units sold in the US this year, though this doesn’t include portable PC devices.
It all sounds impressive, and it is, but it does suggest the Switch 2 won’t perform quite as well as its predecessor, at least at first. The original Switch launched in March 2017 and by January 2018, it had sold 4.8 million units, making it the fastest-selling console in the US ever.
Piscatella expects there will still be hardware constraints for the first several months because of high demand. Plus, ‘units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities.’
He also thinks the PlayStation 5 will outperform the Switch 2 and ‘rank first in overall hardware units sold in the US during the year.’ That’s not very surprising, given it will have the whole year to rack up its total and no stock constraints.
How well the Switch 2 performs will also depend on its games. So far, nothing has been explicitly announced for it, though there is speculation that confirmed Switch games like Metroid Prime 4: Beyond and Pokémon Legends: Z-A are cross-gen titles.
It’s important to remember that support for the current Switch isn’t expected to end any time soon. In 2023, Nintendo suggested it would keep making games for the system, meaning both it and the Switch 2 will co-exist, at least for a while.
Reference:- https://metro.co.uk/2025/01/09/nintendo-switch-2-will-not-outsell-original-console-launch-predicts-analyst-22330502/?ito=flipboard
